Top Performing Multifamily Markets - Q1 2016

The multifamily market has experienced a nearly unprecedented run since the end of the recession. Multifamily growth has been driven by age related demographic trends, homeownership is nearing its lowest point in nearly half a century, and foreign investment reaching new highs.

As the multifamily cycle matures, investors are beginning to seek out value-add markets. This week’s release of Q1 2016 data from Reis gives an opportunity to examine the strongest performing markets over the last 12 months.

According to Reis, the hottest multifamily market in the U.S. has been Portland, where asking rents increased 9.7% year-over-year, climbing to $1,084/unit in Q1 2016 from $988/unit in Q1 2015. Only one year ago, Portland ranked #26 on the rent growth list. Job growth has been strong across the board in Portland, boosted by high-tech commerce, including renewable energy businesses and tech start-ups. As compared to the Bay Area, Portland’s local economy — built on port distribution, strong tourism, and affordability — should help the market remain a strong performer in the longer run.

Full Article: ALEX Chatter

Notes from NMHC’s Research Forum

Last week I had the privilege of attending the 2016 National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC) Research Forum. This was my second year attending, and I learned a lot from my counterparts in other areas of the multifamily research community.

There were some great presentations given by some of the top thought leaders in the multifamily research industry, so I thought I would post some notes and highlights of the event.

Read the full summary here: The State of Multifamily in 2016: Notes from NMHC’s Research Forum

In Case You Missed It: Week of April 4, 2016

Manhattan rents drop for first time in 2 years
The Real Deal
April 7, 2016
“For the first time in two years, the median residential rental price has decreased in the borough, according to a new report by Douglas Elliman. The median rent in March dropped to $3,300, a 2.8 percent decrease from March 2015. Over the last few months, the rate of price growth slowed, preluding a rental flatline.”

U.S. Apartment Market Shows Signs of Losing Steam
The Wall Street Journal ($)
April 7, 2016
“The apartment-rental market cooled in the first quarter, according to reports from three research companies, suggesting a six-year boom that has pushed the cost of housing to unaffordable heights in many U.S. cities might be coming to an end.”

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) Teaser Trailer
Trailer Addict
April 07, 2016
“Rogue One is about a group of rebels who set out on a mission to steal the plans for the Death Star. This is only the first teaser, so don't expect too much to be revealed, but they do show quite a bit and it looks amazing.”

Experts warn affordable housing rules will hurt development 
The New York Post
April 5, 2016
“The City Council and Mayor de Blasio can high-five all they want, but real estate experts believe the new Mandatory Inclusionary Housing (MIH) policies that require affordable units to be interspersed throughout buildings — while so far, not providing any real estate tax breaks in return for the lower rents — will put a damper on development.”

Will Rising U.S. Debt Levels Keep the Fed On Hold?
Charles Schwab
April 4, 2016
“The national debt factors into the Fed’s decisions only insofar as it affects the economy and inflation. Otherwise, fiscal policy is in the hands of Congress. So, what do the debt dynamics look like? The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) compiles a lot of useful data on this topic. It recently released its updated 10-year projections for the country’s financial outlook. The report is available online here, and we’ll take a closer look at some of the numbers below.”

Bryce Harper wore a 'Make Baseball Fun Again' hat after the Nationals' win
USA Today | For The Win
April 4, 2016
“Harper has been outspoken in his dissatisfaction with baseball’s unwritten rules. He wants players to express themselves and have fun on the field. He is in favor of the bat flip, and bat flips are awesome. Harper 2016.”

MAP: The Ramones' New York
DNAinfo
April 3, 2016
“The Queens Museum is about to unveil its tribute exhibit, "Hey! Ho! Let's Go: Ramones and the Birth of Punk" on April 10 — honoring the band's deep roots in the borough. But before Joey, Johnny, Dee Dee and Tommy Ramone — and later Marky, Richie, Elvis and CJ — took the world by storm, they got their start in Forest Hills. The original bandmates lived on Yellowstone Boulevard and wreaked havoc on Queens Boulevard, connecting at Forest Hills High School.”

In Case You Missed It: Week of March 28, 2016

The Employment Situation – March 2016
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
April 1, 2016
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, construction, and health care. Job losses occurred in manufacturing and mining.”

Housing will have its best year in a decade
Freddie Mac 
March 31, 2016
“This year is shaping up to be the best year for housing in a decade.  Home sales, construction housing starts and house prices are set to reach decade-level highs. Here are several reasons why we think this will happen.”

Hell without the L?: Here’s how real estate players are bracing for the train shutdown
The Real Deal
March 30, 2016
“The Real Deal spoke to residential and commercial brokers, developers and business owners to gain some insights into what North Brooklyn will look like after 2018, without the L train (or, as in the MTA’s alternate plan, an L train with no night and weekend service for five years). Here’s what they had to say:”

What Inning Are We In? Let’s Play Two!
National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers
March 28, 2016
 “Commercial property investors are at a confusing spot. After growing at a double digit pace in the last few years, both property prices and volume have now fallen. When positive trends were steady, experts and professionals at industry conferences were asking the same question, “What inning are we in?” We are now in game two of a double header.”

NYC March 2016 Economic Snapshot
New York City Economic Development Corporation
March 28, 2016
“Private employment in New York City increased 4,200 between January and February 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 5.4%, down from 6.3% this time last year.”

The Drop in Oil Prices Has Had a Negligible Impact on CRE
National Real Estate Investor
March 24, 2016
“further volatility in oil prices will continue to affect stock market prices and potentially the real estate market, but largely in a macroeconomic and indirect way by creating uncertainty on the decision making of market participants. As long as job growth remains positive, the real estate market will remain positive as well. Some smaller areas that have shed jobs from drilling and ancillary oil demand will continue to decline, but these markets are isolated and generally small.”

How does Rent Factor into the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

"One economic tool which has stood the test of time is the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the shelter index is a measure of the costs associated with housing, not including investments and upgrades. It’s a major component of CPI — making up 32.8% of total CPI — and has been included since its inception in 1913."

Full Article: ALEX Chatter

Foreign Investment in U.S. Multifamily Hits New Highs

"According to the latest data from Real Capital Analytics, foreign investment volume in U.S. multifamily properties totaled $16.3 billion during 2015 — nearly triple the 2014 total of $5.7 billion.

Foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to increase even further during 2016, in part driven by changes to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) enacted in December. The changes reduce tax obligations for non-U.S. investors investing in U.S. real estate."

Full Article: ALEX Chatter

Multifamily Rents: Class A vs. Class B/C

The gap between class A and class B/C rents in multifamily properties has reached the lowest level in 15 years, representing a value opportunity for small balance investors.

According to data from Reis, the average asking rent for class B/C apartments represented 70.4% of the class A average during Q2 2015. This was the smallest difference on a percentage basis since the same 70.4% rate was measured for the same period during 2000. The largest difference was in 2009, the end of the recession, at 73.4%. Additionally, the net difference between property classes reached a record high of $411/unit during Q2 2015.

Reis data also showed that class A rents have recently grown at a faster pace than class B/C rents. The average asking rent for class A apartments was up 4.2% during Q2 2015 compared to the same time one year ago, while the class B/C average increased 2.5%. Overall, Reis forecasts 2015 year-end rent growth for multifamily properties to finish at 3.8%.

Rent growth in class A properties has been driven by new construction, with Reis reporting nearly 80,000 new units completed so far this year. However, no new class B/C properties have been added to the market so far this year, which could lead to constrained supply in the longer term.


All market data from Reis, Inc.

This report was produced for Arbor Commercial Mortgage, Inc.