Multifamily Market Update — Q3 2016

This article was originally published on ALEX Chatter: Multifamily Market Update — Q3 2016 and all images are from ALEX Chatter.

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The U.S. multifamily market continued to be boosted by the strong national economy during Q3 2016, as the job market posted steady gains and home prices approached pre-recession levels, although uncertainty remained around interest rates and added supply.

Rent Growth

According to Reis, the average asking rent reached $1,272/unit, a 3.9% increase over the $1,224/unit average one year ago, and has risen in every quarter since Q1 2010. The Class A average was $1,473/unit, up 3.8% year-over-year, while Class B/C properties increased 3.4% to $1,030/unit. Among primary markets, New York City posted the highest rent nationally, at $3,499/unit, followed by San Francisco, at $2,548/unit. Overall, Reis forecasts rents to grow 3.7% during 2016, and slow to 2.3% by 2020.

The strongest performing multifamily market in the U.S. over the last 12 months was Seattle, where average asking rent increased 9.3%, climbing to $1,491/unit, from $1,364/unit. Driven by a strong local economy—with a broad industry base featuring aerospace, high-tech, and e-commerce—rents have increased in every quarter since 2009 in the market.

Portland posted the second largest increase in the nation, boosted by high-tech job growth, including renewable energy business and tech start-ups. The area’s strong local economy built on port distribution, strong tourism, and affordability compared to the Bay Area, should help Portland remain a strong performer in the long run.

One of the fastest movers year-to-date has been Atlanta, where asking rents increased 7.2%, to $1,067/unit from $995/unit. The market moved to #3 from #15 at the end of 2015. Atlanta has shown signs of its pre-recession past, with a strong housing market and inward-migration amid steady job growth.

Markets in the Bay Area have slipped. At the end of the third quarter, San Francisco came in at #75 out of 75 markets, with a 0.5% increase (the market was ranked #2 at the end of 2015) and Oakland-East Bay ranked #46 with a 3.2% increase (previously #7).

Vacancy Rate

The vacancy rate finished at 4.4%, an increase compared with 4.3% one year ago, although slightly higher than the most recent low of 4.2% reported in Q2 2015. The Class A vacancy rate was 6.2%, while Class B/C properties finished the quarter at 3.0%. Detroit had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.5%. Development of Class A properties is expected to exert upward pressure on the vacancy rate for the high-end market, while demand for Class B/C rentals is expected to remain high amid tighter supply conditions. Overall, Reis forecasts vacancy to increase to 5.1% by the end of 2020.

Nearly 46,000 new multifamily units were completed in the U.S. through the first nine months of 2016, compared to 206,000 units for all of 2015. Reis forecasts 218,000 new units to come online during 2016, representing 2.1% of the existing inventory, and would be the highest annual total on record. Absorption is forecast to reach 179,000 units for the year, falling short of the 2015 total of 188,000. An additional 492,000 units are expected to be completed through 2020, increasing inventory by 4.6%, with absorption expected to total 414,000 units during that time.

Multifamily Investment Sales

According to Real Capital Analytics, sales volume for U.S. multifamily properties totaled $35.0 billion during Q3 2016, higher than the three-year quarterly average of $32.9 billion, and brought the year-to-date total to $111.3 billion. Annual sales volume was on pace to reach $148.4 billion, which would nearly match 2015’s record-high total of $151.3 billion.

Real Capital Analytics also reported that cross-border capital investment represented 5.6% of total volume through the first nine months of the year, down from 12.8% for all of 2015. These transactions accounted for $6.2 billion in volume, one third the 2015 total of $19.6 billion.

Employment Growth

On the economic front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment in United States increased 1.6%, or 2.4 million jobs, during the 12 months ending in October 2016.

Job growth averaged 181,000 per month year-to-date, compared with an average of 229,000 per month in 2015. The largest gains over the last 12 months were in the professional and business services (up 2.7%), construction (up 2.6%), and education and health services (up 2.6%) sectors.

The largest year-over-year increases in employment among metropolitan divisions were Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL (up 4.4%), Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (up 4.2%), and Haverhill-Newburyport-Amesbury Town, MA-NH (up 4.2%).

Q3 2016: Multifamily Construction on the Rise

This article was originally published on ALEX Chatter: Q3 2016: Multifamily Construction on the Rise.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development recently released new data on residential construction, including data for multifamily buildings (classified as structures with five or more units). All data is seasonally adjusted at an annual rate. 

Building Permits

Total privately-owned residential housing units were authorized by building permits in the United States at a rate of 1,229,000 in October, an increase of 28,000 (2.3%) from the year-end 2015 rate of 1,201,000.

Permits for units in multifamily structures were at a 439,000 rate in October, up 11,000 (2.6%) from the end of 2015, and represented 36% of the total residential permits issued. The multifamily rate for 2015 was the highest year-end level since reaching 614,000 in 1986.

For 2015, the states with the highest multifamily permits as a percent of total residential permits were the District of Columbia (92.6%), New York (83.3%), New Jersey (62.3%), Connecticut (57.5%), and Massachusetts (55.8%).

Housing Starts

Total housing starts were at a 1,323,000 rate in October, an increase of 163,000 (14.1%) from the 2015 year-end total.

Housing starts in multifamily buildings were 445,000, up 67,000 (17.7%) from the end of 2015, and represented 34% of total residential starts. The 2015 total was the highest year-end rate since 381,000 at the end of 2003.

Total residential housing units authorized, but not started, were at rate of 129,000 at the end of October, down from 149,000 (-13.4%) at the end of 2015, including 62,000 in multifamily structures, down from 80,000 (-22.5%).

Housing Completions

Total housing completions were at a rate of 1,055,000 in October, up 22,000 (2.1%) from the end of 2015.

Completions in multifamily buildings were at a 300,000 rate, down 16,000 (-5.1%) from the end of 2015, and represented 28% of total completed residential units. The 2015 total was the highest year-end total since 326,000 units were completed in 2006.

At the end of October, there were 1,049,000 housing units under construction in the U.S., including 597,000 in multifamily structures, representing 57% of the total.

A Look at the Most and Least Expensive Multifamily Investment Markets

This article was originally published on ALEX Chatter: A Look at the Most and Least Expensive Multifamily Investment Markets.

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As we enter the fall buying season, it’s useful to look at pricing in major multifamily markets through the first half of the year. Not only in the priciest markets, but also in markets that may represent higher yield opportunities.

Using transaction data compiled by Real Capital Analytics, we calculated the average sale price in the top 50 markets in the U.S. – specifically, the weighted average price per unit paid for apartment sales transactions over $2.5 million recorded during the 12 months ending in June 2016. The average price for the U.S. overall during that time was $134,000/unit.

Most Expensive Markets

San Francisco ($492,500/unit) was the highest priced multifamily investment market over the last 12 months. Its local economy has been boosted by the expansion of the technology sector, while opposition to new development has limited new supply. Given those attributes, San Francisco should remain among the more favored markets in the long term.

Manhattan ($485,800/unit) was second on the list, weighted heavily by the purchase of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village for $5.3 billion at the end of last year. New York City remains the favorite destination for international investment capital. However, investors of all types have begun to approach this market with caution as the luxury condominium market has slowed recently. The area also now has the highest level of new development in the pipeline of any multifamily market in the country.

The third highest priced multifamily investment markets was also in the Bay Area: San Jose ($334,800/unit). Boosted by a strong local economy built around Silicon Valley’s entrepreneurial spirit, San Jose’s long-term forecast remains bright.

Washington, D.C. ($284,500/unit) and Boston ($257,200/unit), two additional traditional international gateway investment markets, rounded out the top five highest priced markets.

Least Expensive Markets

It’s also useful to look at recent sales transactions in the lowest priced multifamily markets, to see where high-yield opportunities may lie.

“The secondary and tertiary markets of the U.S. have apartment assets that price at a lower rate per unit and also at higher cap rates,” said Jim Costello, Senior Vice President at Real Capital Analytics. “In the six major metros, cap rates came in at 4.8% in during Q2 2016 versus a 6.4% rate in the secondary and tertiary markets. Given that GSE debt is priced about the same across markets in terms of mortgage rates, it implies more positive leverage opportunities in the secondary and tertiary markets.”

The lowest priced market over the last 12 months was Memphis ($54,600/unit). Memphis is expected to maintain strong economic growth as a major transportation hub with a healthy job market, low business costs, and an attractive downtown area.

Indianapolis ($57,600/unit) was another strong market that finished at the bottom of the list. The local economy is expected to continue its recent expansion, which has been driven by low business costs and favorable demographics, along with gains in employment in the high-tech and life sciences sectors.

Three Ohio markets, Cleveland ($59,600/unit), Columbus ($63,100/unit), and Cincinnati ($77,300/unit) were among the lower priced markets. Data from Real Capital Analytics shows that the average apartment cap rate in Ohio came in at 7.6% in during Q2 2016. The local economy in these markets should continue to pick up steam in the near term, based on strong growth of healthcare and professional services sectors.

Houston ($73,700/unit), where the local economy has been hurt by falling energy prices, rounded out the top five lowest priced markets.

Summary of the JCHS’s State of the Nation's Housing 2016 Report

This article was originally published on ALEX Chatter: Harvard Study Shows Multifamily Demand at a Three-Decade High.

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The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) recently released its The State of the Nation’s Housing 2016 report, which found that multifamily vacancy is at three-decade low, while rents are at a three-decade inflation-adjusted high.

Below are findings from the current report most relevant to multifamily investors.

Homeownership Continues to Decline

In 2015, the U.S. homeownership rate reached its lowest level since the 1960s, falling to 63.7%. Declines were particularly large in the first-time homebuyer age groups, although all age groups have declined since 1995 except for the oldest generations.

Three factors have led to the decline in homeownership. First, foreclosures remain approximately twice the annual average compared to before the downturn and are likely to continue to exert downward pressure on homeownership in the short-term. Second, subprime borrowers (those with credit scores below 620) are far less likely to have their mortgage credit extended as compared to during the early 2000s. Third, real incomes have dropped 18% among 25-34 year olds and 9% among 35-44 year olds between 2000 and 2014.

The report cites several factors expected to improve homeownership levels in the future, including a loosening of credit standards for mortgage borrowers and increased wage growth. It also states other factors that could have a negative effect on homeownership, such as the rising tide of student loan debt: The share of the 20-39 age group with student debt jumped to 39% in 2013, compared to 22% in 2001. During that time, the average debt balance increased from $17,000 to $30,000 per borrower.

Home buying has also been delayed by the increased average age of marriage and childbirth, as well as the growing minority population — though offset by aging baby boomers, who increased the rate of homeownership. The study was unable to make a determination as to whether the housing crisis permanently diminished the appeal of homeownership in the U.S., though points to evidence that it did not.

Rental Market

In good news for multifamily investors, the housing recovery continues to be driven by the rental market. Over 36% of U.S. households rented in 2015, the largest share since the late 1960s. The number of renters increased by 9 million over the previous 10 years, which was the largest 10-year gain on record. Demand has been driven by all age groups, with the largest gains measured among older renters and families with children.

This high level of demand has driven vacancy rates steadily downward since 2010, falling to 7.1% at the end of 2015. Additionally, rents increased 3.6% during 2015, based on the Consumer Price Index for rent of primary residences. Adjusted for inflation, it has been three decades since either indicator of the rental market reached such levels.

Although activity has spiked in the multifamily development pipeline, which could help loosen conditions, much of the new supply is intended for the upper end of the market. The national average for high-end new developments was $1,381 per month during 2015, well out of the price range of the typical earner’s average earnings of $35,000 per year.

The Moody’s/RCA price index for multifamily properties was 39% above its previous high at the end of 2015, and capitalization rates were below the levels reported prior to the recession. Valuations were especially high in gateway markets such as New York, where property levels were up 93% compared to their previous peak, and San Francisco, up 85%.

Affordability Remains an Issue

The number of cost-burdened households remains an issue on both the owner and renter sides.

On the ownership side, the number of households paying more than 30% of income for housing decreased by 4.4 million households since 2008, finishing off 2014 at 18.5 million. However, the decline in cost-burdened ownership has been improved by high foreclosure rates pushing out financially strained owners.

On the rental side, the number of households paying more than 30% of income for rent increased by 3.6 million since 2008, finishing off 2014 at 21.3 million. The number of severely burdened households paying more than 50% of income increased by 2.1 million, to a record 11.4 million. Among the nation’s lowest-income renters — those earning less than $15,000 — 72% are severely burdened.

Outlook

The rental market continues to expand at a robust pace, while the owner-occupied market continues to recover. Home prices have rebounded since the recession, and homeownership rates are expected to remain level over the next few years. However, affordability remains a major issue in the U.S., with record numbers of renters paying more than half their income for housing.

Download the full 2016 State of the Nation’s Housing report.

Top Performing Multifamily Markets - Q1 2016

The multifamily market has experienced a nearly unprecedented run since the end of the recession. Multifamily growth has been driven by age related demographic trends, homeownership is nearing its lowest point in nearly half a century, and foreign investment reaching new highs.

As the multifamily cycle matures, investors are beginning to seek out value-add markets. This week’s release of Q1 2016 data from Reis gives an opportunity to examine the strongest performing markets over the last 12 months.

According to Reis, the hottest multifamily market in the U.S. has been Portland, where asking rents increased 9.7% year-over-year, climbing to $1,084/unit in Q1 2016 from $988/unit in Q1 2015. Only one year ago, Portland ranked #26 on the rent growth list. Job growth has been strong across the board in Portland, boosted by high-tech commerce, including renewable energy businesses and tech start-ups. As compared to the Bay Area, Portland’s local economy — built on port distribution, strong tourism, and affordability — should help the market remain a strong performer in the longer run.

Full Article: ALEX Chatter

Notes from NMHC’s Research Forum

Last week I had the privilege of attending the 2016 National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC) Research Forum. This was my second year attending, and I learned a lot from my counterparts in other areas of the multifamily research community.

There were some great presentations given by some of the top thought leaders in the multifamily research industry, so I thought I would post some notes and highlights of the event.

Read the full summary here: The State of Multifamily in 2016: Notes from NMHC’s Research Forum

In Case You Missed It: Week of April 4, 2016

Manhattan rents drop for first time in 2 years
The Real Deal
April 7, 2016
“For the first time in two years, the median residential rental price has decreased in the borough, according to a new report by Douglas Elliman. The median rent in March dropped to $3,300, a 2.8 percent decrease from March 2015. Over the last few months, the rate of price growth slowed, preluding a rental flatline.”

U.S. Apartment Market Shows Signs of Losing Steam
The Wall Street Journal ($)
April 7, 2016
“The apartment-rental market cooled in the first quarter, according to reports from three research companies, suggesting a six-year boom that has pushed the cost of housing to unaffordable heights in many U.S. cities might be coming to an end.”

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) Teaser Trailer
Trailer Addict
April 07, 2016
“Rogue One is about a group of rebels who set out on a mission to steal the plans for the Death Star. This is only the first teaser, so don't expect too much to be revealed, but they do show quite a bit and it looks amazing.”

Experts warn affordable housing rules will hurt development 
The New York Post
April 5, 2016
“The City Council and Mayor de Blasio can high-five all they want, but real estate experts believe the new Mandatory Inclusionary Housing (MIH) policies that require affordable units to be interspersed throughout buildings — while so far, not providing any real estate tax breaks in return for the lower rents — will put a damper on development.”

Will Rising U.S. Debt Levels Keep the Fed On Hold?
Charles Schwab
April 4, 2016
“The national debt factors into the Fed’s decisions only insofar as it affects the economy and inflation. Otherwise, fiscal policy is in the hands of Congress. So, what do the debt dynamics look like? The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) compiles a lot of useful data on this topic. It recently released its updated 10-year projections for the country’s financial outlook. The report is available online here, and we’ll take a closer look at some of the numbers below.”

Bryce Harper wore a 'Make Baseball Fun Again' hat after the Nationals' win
USA Today | For The Win
April 4, 2016
“Harper has been outspoken in his dissatisfaction with baseball’s unwritten rules. He wants players to express themselves and have fun on the field. He is in favor of the bat flip, and bat flips are awesome. Harper 2016.”

MAP: The Ramones' New York
DNAinfo
April 3, 2016
“The Queens Museum is about to unveil its tribute exhibit, "Hey! Ho! Let's Go: Ramones and the Birth of Punk" on April 10 — honoring the band's deep roots in the borough. But before Joey, Johnny, Dee Dee and Tommy Ramone — and later Marky, Richie, Elvis and CJ — took the world by storm, they got their start in Forest Hills. The original bandmates lived on Yellowstone Boulevard and wreaked havoc on Queens Boulevard, connecting at Forest Hills High School.”

In Case You Missed It: Week of March 28, 2016

The Employment Situation – March 2016
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
April 1, 2016
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, construction, and health care. Job losses occurred in manufacturing and mining.”

Housing will have its best year in a decade
Freddie Mac 
March 31, 2016
“This year is shaping up to be the best year for housing in a decade.  Home sales, construction housing starts and house prices are set to reach decade-level highs. Here are several reasons why we think this will happen.”

Hell without the L?: Here’s how real estate players are bracing for the train shutdown
The Real Deal
March 30, 2016
“The Real Deal spoke to residential and commercial brokers, developers and business owners to gain some insights into what North Brooklyn will look like after 2018, without the L train (or, as in the MTA’s alternate plan, an L train with no night and weekend service for five years). Here’s what they had to say:”

What Inning Are We In? Let’s Play Two!
National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers
March 28, 2016
 “Commercial property investors are at a confusing spot. After growing at a double digit pace in the last few years, both property prices and volume have now fallen. When positive trends were steady, experts and professionals at industry conferences were asking the same question, “What inning are we in?” We are now in game two of a double header.”

NYC March 2016 Economic Snapshot
New York City Economic Development Corporation
March 28, 2016
“Private employment in New York City increased 4,200 between January and February 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 5.4%, down from 6.3% this time last year.”

The Drop in Oil Prices Has Had a Negligible Impact on CRE
National Real Estate Investor
March 24, 2016
“further volatility in oil prices will continue to affect stock market prices and potentially the real estate market, but largely in a macroeconomic and indirect way by creating uncertainty on the decision making of market participants. As long as job growth remains positive, the real estate market will remain positive as well. Some smaller areas that have shed jobs from drilling and ancillary oil demand will continue to decline, but these markets are isolated and generally small.”

How does Rent Factor into the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

"One economic tool which has stood the test of time is the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the shelter index is a measure of the costs associated with housing, not including investments and upgrades. It’s a major component of CPI — making up 32.8% of total CPI — and has been included since its inception in 1913."

Full Article: ALEX Chatter

Foreign Investment in U.S. Multifamily Hits New Highs

"According to the latest data from Real Capital Analytics, foreign investment volume in U.S. multifamily properties totaled $16.3 billion during 2015 — nearly triple the 2014 total of $5.7 billion.

Foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to increase even further during 2016, in part driven by changes to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) enacted in December. The changes reduce tax obligations for non-U.S. investors investing in U.S. real estate."

Full Article: ALEX Chatter